NFL Model Play Plans

The NFL season is quickly approaching and many of you have begun asking what my plans are when it comes to sharing my NFL model plays. For those of you that followed along last season, we enjoyed a 75-47-6 record (61% hit rate) for +43.1 units (18% ROI). To keep things short and sweet, I will be charging for the NFL model plays this season. However, I will still be doing a free weekly writeup during the regular season that will cover one model play in-depth. Those write-ups can be found on this site every Thursday afternoon.

Model Play Package Details

  • Price: $500
  • Full refund issued if the model plays do not generate a 5 unit profit ($100 bettor breaks even, or is refunded)
  • Includes model plays for regular season and playoffs
  • Includes model-recommended preseason and in-season futures

You can purchase the model plays by heading to the Products page.

Model Changelog

Spreads of +7 and higher

I made a change in how the model derives larger spreads. Last year the model struggled with spreads of +7 or higher last season (11-11-2 for -2.72 units) and plays on such spreads were discontinued Week 10 onwards. I implemented a change and backtested it, and the record on those plays were now 7-5-0 for +1.73u. I was more pleased with the increased selectivity (12 plays vs. 24) as opposed to the better performance, as the sample is obviously too small to make anything of the increased performance.

Unit Change

Last year each point of disagreement equaled one unit of play which made it so that the lowest possible play was two units, given that the model required two points of disagreement for a play to qualify. This year each point of difference will equal a half unit of play, so that the base play is one unit. I’ve went ahead and made this change across the site and in last year’s model tracker, as the previous net was +86.2 units but now stands at +43.1 units. The scale does not change the ROI for last year, which still stands at 18%.

FAQ

I didn't follow along last year, how does it work?

I would recommend reading last year’s model recap.

How will model plays be sent?

Model plays are delivered via a private Slack channel and through email, and you are free to use either or both.

When are model plays sent?

A model play for any game can be sent anytime up to until 15 minutes before kickoff.

Will you still be avoiding Thursday Night Football games?

Yes, unfortunately I have been unable to derive a mathematical method to account for this subset of games. I’m still looking for solutions, but it is looking unlikely at this point.

Will there be any packages except for the full season package?

There are no plans for any additional packages.

Do you accept other forms of payment (Venmo, Bitcoin, payment plans, etc.)?

No.

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