Today I am excited to finally announce my plans for the MLB model I’ve built for the 2019 season. Many of you have been asking about the MLB model for months now, especially following the success of the NFL and NCAAM models I’ve shared. I thought it’d be appropriate to recap those performances for those who may not be familiar.
Starting last October, I began sharing NFL model plays for free. The model ended up going 75-47-6 (a 60.94% hit rate) and yielded 89.3 units of profit (an 18.10% ROI). A $100 bettor would have made nearly $9,000 over the course of the season. Given that the NFL is considered the sharpest sports market, I thought I’d try my hand at NCAAM.
In mid-February, I began providing NCAAM model plays to those who contributed $20+ to Doctors Without Borders. Across two donation periods, there were 995 contributors for $25,379. The model as of this writing is 71-46-2 (a 60.50% hit rate) and has yielded 29.3 units of profit (a 12.78% ROI). A $100 bettor would currently be up $1600 in four weeks if they donated during the first period, or up $1000 in two weeks if they donated during the second period. Sharing model plays for the NCAAM was a learning experience, as I have faced several issues:
There could be as many games in one Saturday as an entire NFL season. In just over a month of NCAAM model plays, there have already been as many model plays as there were in the entire five month NFL season.
Given the volume that comes with a sport that has a good chunk of games daily and given that I still have a full-time job, the size of the workload and the time I had available was not the most ideal. I firmly believe the NCAAM model plays would be performing better on some level if I had more time available.
With nearly a thousand people having access to the model plays, I received many comments (and complaints) that lines would move extremely quickly after I would share a model play. This made getting the same model play lines an extremely difficult task for many.
MLB Model Play Packages
Given that providing MLB model plays will require a similar workload to NCAAM, I thought it would be within reason to charge for MLB model plays. As a good faith measure and as a proof-of-concept of the MLB model’s ability, I will provide MLB model plays for free through April. After that period, I will be closing off access to two packages:
- Price: $499
- Includes model-recommended futures
- Includes all postseason plays
- Receive the free plays 30 minutes in advance
- Price: $99
- Purchases of 30 day packages prior to Opening Day (March 28th) will include model-recommended futures
- Note: The 30 days will begin on May 1st
How are the model plays sent?
Model plays are sent via email by default, with purchasers also having a private Twitter account they can follow.
When will model plays be sent?
There is no set time for when model plays will be sent. Given the dynamic nature of starting lineups, the time at which model plays will be shared will vary from day to day.
How will the free plays through April be shared?
The free plays will be tweeted from the @SamkonModels account. This will of course come 30 minutes after full season package purchasers have received the plays.
What is the MLB model’s record in past seasons?
Given that the NFL model I built last summer was the first model I’ve built for any sport, the MLB model would be the first iteration for this sport.
Do 30 day package purchasers also receive the free plays 30 minutes in advance?
No, this perk is only available for full season package purchasers.
Can I pay with Bitcoin?
Paying via Bitcoin is currently not an option. There are some hurdles I have to sort through before offering that option, but it is something I want to incorporate in the near future.